It's a derby in which the Maple Leafs, not yet bad enough to get better, must have a horse
Brian Burke knows it, Dave Nonis knows it and even Ron Wilson, you have to believe, knows it.
John Tavares' special performance on a big stage for Team Canada in the opening game of the world junior championship in Ottawa on Friday night was just the latest piece of compelling evidence that made it clear the Leafs need to be at least in a position to win the draft lottery and land the No. 1 overall pick next June.
True, the world juniors is just one competition, and in an 8-1 trampling of the Czech Republic, there were a few Canadians who looked flashy on the attack.
But Tavares' two goals were both scored early when the game was competitive, and his setup to Angelo Esposito displayed the kind of on-ice vision that scouts love to see from elite players.
That it happened as the Leafs were simultaneously showing how lousy they can be in Long Island without a special player up front to make a difference seemed, well, painfully symbolic.
For those who fallaciously argue that the Leafs are basically a .500 team and therefore an over-achieving squad on the rise, ask yourself this: If they lost 82 straight games in overtime and thus ended the season with 82 points, would they still be .500?
Just wondering.
After temporarily losing his status as the No. 1 prospect available in the world to Swedish defenceman Victor Hedman, meanwhile, Tavares appeared to have won that honour back before the world juniors even started after a strong half-season in Oshawa.
While former Leaf GM Cliff Fletcher argued earlier this year that there are no franchise players available in the '09 draft, Tavares and Hedman may prove him wrong.
As of yesterday, the lowest five teams in the NHL - and thus the clubs with the potential to land the No. 1 pick in June via the draft lottery - were the Islanders, Lightning, Thrashers, Blues and, surprise surprise, the Senators.
The Leafs, after humiliating losses to Dallas and Long Island, sat 23rd yesterday, otherwise known as no man's land. Last year, being in that kind of position cost them first-, second- and third-round picks to move up from the seventh pick (after finishing 24th overall) but didn't get them within shouting distance of Steven Stamkos or Drew Doughty.
They now have no second- or third-rounder next June, and no second- or third-rounder in 2010. So that's the kind of expensive transaction they just can't afford to make again any time soon.
(Interestingly, the five teams that drafted after the Leafs last June and didn't sacrifice draft picks to move up still corralled prospects as promising as steady Luke Schenn. Vancouver, for instance, snagged Canadian national junior team star Cody Hodgson at 10th overall, and imagine the rejoicing in Leaf Nation today if this talented young man were owned by Toronto's NHL entry.) After 35 games, the Leafs go into Washington tonight again sitting too high in the standings to have a shot at the most coveted teenagers in the world next June. That said, they have both the time to get worse and clearly the potential to be much worse after their dreadful performance on Long Island.
Wilson, as a first-year coach on a long-term deal, can at least comfort himself knowing that if the Leafs finish low enough to land Tavares or Hedman, he'll actually get the chance to coach them.
Now Burke's got to manoeuvre the Leafs to where they need to be. While goaltending that wavers between acceptable and atrocious will help, it still won't be simple.
The Atlantas and Tampas of the NHL's nether regions, you see, will be difficult to overcome.
Then again, nobody said getting to the bottom was going to be easy.
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